Economy Has Dramatically Improved Since 2023; New Currency Notes Sent for Cabinet Approval: Jameel Ahmed
KARACHI: Governor State Bank of Pakistan Jameel Ahmad on Friday declared that Pakistan’s economy had undergone a remarkable turnaround over the last three years, with foreign exchange reserves soaring from a critically low $3 billion to $17 billion, remittances set to cross a historic $41 billion mark, and the country’s external account returning to stability despite global turbulence and Middle East tensions.
Addressing an interactive session during his visit to Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Governor State Bank said the economic situation today was vastly different from the crisis-like conditions witnessed in 2023 when imports had sharply contracted and businesses were struggling to open Letters of Credit (LCs). “Today, average monthly imports have crossed $5 billion compared to nearly $3 billion three years ago, while the LC situation has improved substantially,” he stated.
Jameel Ahmad said the State Bank’s reforms, coupled with stringent action against hundi and hawala, had played a vital role in stabilizing the economy and strengthening foreign exchange reserves. He revealed that remittances, which stood at $38 billion last fiscal year, were now expected to exceed an unprecedented $41 billion during the current fiscal year.
He further disclosed that Pakistan’s current account remained in surplus during the first nine months of FY26 and the overall deficit was expected to remain between zero and one percent. “Pakistan’s external account is now in a much stronger and healthier position,” he remarked.
On economic growth, he said the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics estimated GDP growth at 3.7 percent during the first nine months of the current fiscal year, while the State Bank projected annual growth between 3.75 and 4.75 percent. He acknowledged that global uncertainties and oil prices could impact growth during the final quarter of FY26.
Warning of temporary inflationary pressures, Jameel Ahmad said inflation could exceed 7 percent during the last quarter of FY26; however, the State Bank remained committed to maintaining inflation within the medium-term target range of 5 to 7 percent. He expressed confidence that inflation would gradually decline going forward.
Highlighting the State Bank’s renewed focus on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), he said regulations had been simplified, procedural hurdles reduced and banks directed to formulate dedicated SME growth plans. He revealed that SME financing surged from Rs491 billion in June 2024 to Rs882 billion by December 2025, while the target was to increase it to Rs1.5 trillion by June 2028.
“Pakistan’s future GDP growth is directly linked with SME expansion,” he emphasized, adding that the State Bank had also introduced a simplified one-page loan application form for SMEs.
Discussing exports, the Governor SBP stated that global economic conditions and declining international commodity prices had negatively impacted export performance. He noted that while rice exports of $3.5 billion significantly boosted exports last year, falling global rice prices had reduced export earnings by nearly $1 billion this year. Exports, he said, were estimated at around $30 billion this year compared to $32 billion last year, although the government was actively pursuing measures to reverse the trend and positive results were expected within the next two months.
In another major disclosure, the Governor SBP revealed that the designs of Pakistan’s new currency notes had been finalized and sent to the federal cabinet for approval. He also clarified that exchange company rates were determined entirely by market forces and the State Bank had no direct role in fixing exchange rates.
He further confirmed that progress was underway on the licensing and regulation framework for virtual assets in Pakistan.
